Hard Currency Playbook: FX Risk Strategy for Middle East CFOs

Published June 24, 2025 • Vertas Financial Consultancy

Learn why a well-structured FX plan separates proactive companies from reactive ones. We break down tactics that modern CFOs in the Middle East can use to stabilize cash flow, improve visibility, and protect strategy in a volatile currency environment.

Why FX Risk Is Rising Again

In 2025, currency exposure is once again a board-level concern. Egypt’s pound has devalued 3x since 2022. Türkiye’s lira touched record lows. Lebanon’s dual-market FX system is widening. Even Gulf-based CFOs face indirect risk through imported inflation and USD liquidity tightening.

The biggest danger? FX risk often compounds silently. Until it’s too late to hedge affordably.

Historical View: What We Learned from Past FX Crises

📌 Egypt (2016 & 2022 Devaluations)

Companies invoicing in EGP but sourcing in USD saw margin collapse. Many couldn’t pass on costs fast enough. Those with natural hedges (e.g., USD-linked exports or indexed contracts) navigated more safely.

📌 Türkiye (2018–2023 Currency Slide)

Turkish firms with high USD debt faced doubled interest burdens as the lira weakened. Those who moved assets offshore or restructured payments survived longer. Businesses relying only on local banks struggled as FX volatility spiked borrowing costs.

📌 Lebanon (2019–2021 Currency Split)

Failure to prepare for dual exchange rates crushed receivables. Some CFOs implemented internal parallel tracking. Others had to manually reconcile up to four rate tiers. Those without daily dashboards lost grip on liquidity.

5 Moves Every CFO Should Make Now

1. Map Your Natural Hedges

Don’t just look at currency — look at cash flow structure. If you pay suppliers in USD but sell in EGP or TRY, you’re exposed. CFOs should match foreign-currency revenue to FX-denominated costs to build resilience.

2. Build Indexed Pricing Mechanisms

In long-term contracts, add clauses that tie pricing to FX corridors. Example: "This agreement price shall adjust by 1.5% for every 5% change in the USD/EGP rate."

3. Reforecast Debt and Lease Obligations Monthly

Many CFOs still model debt service in static rates. But when devaluation occurs, real burdens spike. Use dual forecasts: one using the official rate, and one using the shadow/parallel rate.

4. Track Offshore vs Onshore Liquidity Gaps

If your group holds USD abroad, compare offshore USD vs local USD availability. The difference in ability to settle invoices and repatriate cash is often critical to payment timing.

5. Create a Board FX Dashboard

Every board meeting should include a simple FX tracker:

Bonus: Consider Dual Pricing

Some businesses now use dual-price invoicing — quoting in both local and hard currency. While not always feasible legally, it adds optionality for pricing and psychological anchoring.

Conclusion: FX Isn’t Just Treasury’s Job Anymore

Today, FX risk affects pricing, supply chain, credit, and investor relations. It is a strategic issue. CFOs must bring clarity to boards — not just rate charts, but options, timelines, and thresholds.

Whether in Cairo, Istanbul, Dubai, or Beirut — the CFO who owns FX visibility owns strategic trust.

Need Help Building Your FX Strategy?

At VERTAS, we support regional finance leaders with real-time FX dashboards, indexed pricing playbooks, and scenario modeling aligned to your sector.

📩 Contact us for a custom FX exposure session: info@vertasfin.com